Lagarde to speak at Munich Security Conference: what to watch and how markets may trade it.

Summary:

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled for opening remarks at a Munich Security Conference roundtable on trade dependencies and global supply chains.

  • Time: 17:30 CET, Saturday 14 Feb (11:30 US EST).

  • It’s not a formal ECB policy event, but the topic can touch inflation drivers (supply chains, trade fragmentation).

  • Lagarde is also listed for a panel on European competitiveness at 10:30 CET, Sunday 15 Feb.

  • Backdrop: ECB kept rates unchanged on 5 Feb and reiterated a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to speak at the Munich Security Conference this weekend, offering markets a non-policy-stage read on how the ECB is thinking about the global forces shaping inflation and growth.

The ECB’s weekly calendar lists Lagarde delivering opening remarks at a roundtable on trade dependencies and global supply chains at 17:30 CET on Saturday 14 February. The ECB notes the text of her remarks will be published afterwards. Lagarde is also scheduled to participate in a panel on European competitiveness at 10:30 CET on Sunday 15 February, though the ECB says no text will be made available for that appearance.

While this is not a Governing Council decision day or press conference, the theme matters. Supply-chain resilience and trade fragmentation can influence the ECB’s medium-term inflation profile, particularly via goods prices, energy sensitivity, and the “stickiness” that can emerge when supply networks become less efficient. Lagarde has previously flagged the risk that more fragmented global supply chains could add to inflation pressures, making Saturday’s topic one where she may expand on these structural channels.

The appearance comes shortly after the ECB kept rates steady on 5 February and repeated it will remain data-dependent and decide policy meeting by meeting, aiming to ensure inflation stabilises at 2% in the medium term.

For traders, the baseline expectation is low event risk versus an ECB presser — but markets will listen for any nuance on: (1) trade shocks and pass-through, (2) euro-area resilience/competitiveness, and (3) whether global uncertainty tilts risks to inflation persistence or growth downside.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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