Investinglive Americas FX news wrap 24 Jul; ECB kept rates unchanged

• U.S. Treasury’s Bessent says U.S. in pretty good place with China on trade
• Major US indices close mixed. Dow lower. S&P near unchanged. NASDAQ marginally higher.
• Trump will meet with Fed Chair Powell at the Federal Reserve construction site
• Pentagon: US State Department approves potential sale of defense system to Egypt
• Crude oil futures settle at $66.03 a barrel. Seller give up for now.
• Pres. Trump to visit the Federal Reserve - the office building under construction
• Nvidia is trending higher and using the moving averages as risk/bias defining levels
• European indices closed with mixed results. France's CAC in Italy's FTSE MIB fall
• Freddie Mac 30 year mortgage rate down to 6.74%. Little changed from last week
• ECB sources: Baseline for Sept. is for no change in policy rates. EURUSD reaches target.
• Summary of the press conference from ECB's Lagarde: We are in a good place
• US June new-home sales 0.627M versus 0.650 million estimate
• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI flash 49.5 versus 52.7 estimate
• US Commerce Sec. Lutnick: EU really wants to make a deal
• ECB's Legarde: In the first quarter the economy grew more than expected
• US initial jobless claims 217K vs 226K estimate
• Canada May retail sales -1.1% vs -1.1% expected
• ECB leaves key interest rates unchanged in July monetary policy meeting, as expected
• The EURUSD is lower ahead of the ECB rate decision and US initial claims
• EU reportedly to keep trade retaliation on hand even if a deal with the US draws closer
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar holds steady, gold retreats; ECB up next

The ECB kept rates unchanged. ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a cautiously optimistic outlook, noting stronger-than-expected 0.6% Q1 euro area growth, supported by consumption, investment, and a strong labor market. She acknowledged downside risks from higher tariffs, a stronger euro, and geopolitical uncertainty, but also highlighted potential upside if those risks are resolved.

On inflation, Lagarde said it appears to be stabilizing around the 2% target, with moderating labor costs and improved productivity helping ease pressures. Still, she flagged heightened uncertainty due to bottlenecks and unknown tariff effects.

Lagarde confirmed the ECB is not pre-committing to a rate path, emphasizing a data-dependent approach. The current policy stance was unanimously supported, and she said the ECB is in a "good place" to hold steady and monitor how risks unfold. Minor inflation deviations won't prompt immediate action, and retaliatory tariffs remain optional.

An ECB sources report said that September is looking like unchanged as well after moving rates from 4.5% to 2.15%.

The EURUSD had a down, up and down session with new lows made at 1.1729 before running to new highs for the day at 1.1787 which was near the last swing highs going back to early July. The day ended with a move back down with the price trading nearer the lows at 1.1749. Support is at 1.1725 in the new trading day with resistance at 1.1788.

The GBPUSD moved steadily to the downside today closing near the lows for the day and near the 100 hour MA at 1.3505. That area (down to 1.3500) will either hold and bounce or continue to move lower and open the door for more downside momentum.

The USDJPY rebounded higher and looks to the falling 100-hour MA at 147.106.

Looking at other markets, the US stock market closed mixed with the Dow falling from what was near record levels yesterday. The Dow fell -316.38 points or -0.70%. The S&P was up modestly by 0.07% and closed at a record level. The Nasdaq was up 0.18% and it too closed at a new record. level.

European indices were mixed with France and Italy falling. Spain and the UK were the biggest gainers today.

Yield were higher in the shorter end, but the 30 year is down 1 basis point. The 2 year is up 3.2 basis points.

On the economic front, the US initial jobless claims continued its rotation back down and below 220K to 217K. Recall it was pushing 250K not long ago, but is now lower again.

New home sales mirrored the existing home sales from yesterday with a decline.

Crude oil banged the 100 day MA to start the week (at $64.92), but moved higher today as sellers gave up, and buyers took charge (at least for now). Crude is trading at $0.78 at $66.03. The 200 day moving averages about $68.03.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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